As Expected

As expected, if they keep doing what they are doing and nothing else change…

Big data, artificial intelligence, machine learning, there are many sophisticated formulas on predicting outcomes and results. 90%, 99%, 1% success rate. But too frequently, the results takes drastic turns and ended in a completely different way.

How could a 99% rate result in a total swing around? If that 1% is so important, or so critical that it could swing things around, shouldn’t the probability not be 99% in the first place? Isn’t it gravely misleading?

Simply, it’s a matter of “we don’t know what we don’t know”.

Probability can only be “measured” based on known current factors, known foreseeable factors and known unknown factors.

With the last one being the most mystical of all.

It probably same like predicting Apple during its golden days.

Apple is selling desktop computers

Apple is going to sell laptop computers

Apple may not win the market in desktop or laptop computers

What? Apple is selling iPod and iPhones now?

So, when you see a 99% probability rate next time, well, it’s just a number.


Thank you for reading.

~ the best way to predict the future is to create it

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